Alasdair Macleod explains why the Fed can’t increase interest rates

I’m just putting up this conversation of SD Metals because Alasdair Macleod is making good points on why the Fed won’t increase interest rates and will unleash QE4.

For more info on interest rates see: http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2015/files/2015010pap.pdf

https://www.youtube.com/embed/xpEtgsq0dJM?feature=player_embedded

Silver Inventories at CME and Lease Rates

Just a few weeks after I turned bullish on silver, articles are sprouting out of nowhere about silver inventories being historically low.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/8/17_Expect_Major_Silver_Price_Spike_As_COMEX_Inventories_Decline.html

However, I see signs of a temporary weakness in silver.

1) The silver stocks at the CME aren’t actually going down anymore. They are going upwards (Chart 1).

Chart 1: Silver Stocks CME

2) The silver lease rates are actually going down, instead of going up. Historically, when silver lease rates plunge, the price of silver will go down a few months later.

Chart 2: Silver Lease Rate

Conclusion: I would be wary about the price of silver. If this trend continues this way, look out below!

How Likely is QE3? 70% likely.

Ben Bernanke has been saving his ammo in the past months. Each time the fed meeting was held, markets were hoping for QE3, but they didn’t receive any. This is evidence by the U.S. federal reserve balance sheet on Chart 1.

Chart 1: U.S. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

Today, we have passed several months and we already see that the economy is starting to deteriorate. Not only in Europe and the emerging markets, but especially in the United States. In this article I will focus on the key macroeconomic data in the U.S.