LIBOR Vs. SHIBOR

As an analogy on this post, we can do the same analysis in China. The key is that SHIBOR affects Chinese adjustable mortgage rates.

Following site gives us the Shanghai LIBOR rates, namely: SHIBOR.
http://www.shibor.org/shibor/web/ShiborJPG_e.jsp

As you can see, we had a pretty big spike in SHIBOR (Chart 1), which also means a surge in China interest rates/funds rate.

Chart 1: SHIBOR

As you know a rise in interest rates means a rise in bond yields too, because there is this correlation between the funds rate, the mortgage rates and the bond yields.

Chart 2: 10 year China Bonds

As SHIBOR increases, so does the Chinese funds rate increase together with rising adjustable mortgage rates. And that has negative implications on the Chinese real estate market as you can see below.

So watching SHIBOR is a must, if you are invested in Chinese government bonds and Chinese real estate.

If SHIBOR goes up, Chinese bonds and real estate go down.

Correlation: LIBOR Vs. Fed Funds Rate

The LIBOR rate at which the banks lend each other money, is an important element in calculating the gold lease rate. Obviously, this LIBOR rate is influenced by the Federal Reserve via the Fed Funds Rate.

As you can see on this chart, there is an almost 100% correlation between LIBOR and the Fed Funds Rate.

As the Federal Reserve said that they will keep interest rates at zero until 2015, LIBOR rates will keep floating around the 0% level.

This also means that the gold lease rate (LIBOR minus GOFO (Gold Forward Rate)) is entirely dependent on the GOFO rate as long as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates near zero.

Once inflation begins to pick up though, the Federal Reserve will have to raise the Fed Funds Rate (contractionary monetary policy), which will increase LIBOR rates and this will tend to raise the gold lease rates. In turn, high gold lease rates are a bullish environment for gold prices.

Note that there is one power that will force the Federal Reserve to increase its Fed Funds Rate and that is the yields on the bond market and the mortgage market.

As you can see on this graph below, the adjustable mortgage rates are starting to edge upwards even with a zero interest rate policy. Government bond yields are also edging upwards. So eventually, the Federal Reserve will be pressured to increase interest rates to keep up with the rise in bond and mortgage yields.

Investors who are still invested in the U.S. bond market, are taking a huge risk at this stage, especially when Ben Bernanke is forced to implement contractionary monetary policies at some point. Who will buy these U.S. government bonds… As a matter of fact, foreign investors are already dumping U.S. bonds as shown in the foreign U.S. bond investors report of April 2013.

LIBOR scandal and the Significance of it on gold & silver lease rates

Following the LIBOR scandal we need to take a look at gold and silver lease rates, because lease rates are calculated as LIBOR – GOFO (London Interbank Offered Rate – Gold Forward Offered rate).

The London Interbank Offered Rate is the average interest rate estimated by leading banks in London that they would be charged if borrowing from other banks. GOFO is the interest we need to pay if we swap gold for U.S. dollars. Whenever GOFO goes down (or gold lease rates go up), it means people are craving to get their hands on gold. At the same time, when LIBOR goes up (or gold lease rates go up), it basically means the same: higher gold prices to come.

To read the effect of LIBOR on the gold lease rate in more detail, go to: LIBOR scandal and its effects on gold and silver lease rates.