We can already see the future.
Month: January 2023
Global oil inventories record low
Oil Forecaster Index (backup)
The same chart below but GDP substituted by credit spreads.
Rig counts = Blue line
- Shale gas production (decline rates)
- U.S. natural gas storage Robry model
- EU natural gas storage (link 2)
- EU natural gas demand
- Fair value price of gas
- EU electricity production by source
- LNG production and LNG price
- Weather forecast and polar vortex
- Distillate demand and China oil demand
- Global oil supply and demand
- Oil refinery demand
- Crack spreads
- Bullish percentage index
- Drilled Uncompleted Wells and Shale oil/gas production (Permian/Haynesville/Appalachia/Bakken/Anadarko/Eagle Ford/Niobrara)
- Baker Hughes rig count or Enverus rig counts or oil/gas rig counts (link 2)
- Refinery net production
- Weekly supply of petroleum products (proxy for consumer oil demand)
Check the forward curve, if we are in backwardation, typically oil/natgas is topping out.
Check the palm oil price, which is a leading indicator for crude oil.
Europe energy consumption
Oil Open Interest Vs. Oil Price
Open interest (link 2) in oil is a leading indicator for the oil price as it tells us whether there is money flowing into the sector or not.
By checking out the Open Interest of various commodities, we can roughly gauge their price trend.
As Open Interest increases, more money is moving into the futures contract and vice versa. Open Interest represents the total number of open contracts and volume is the total number of contracts that have changed hands in a one-day trading session. It is important that observe the relationship between open interest and volume. By using open interest, traders are able to forecast the trends and momentum opportunities, and also augur the market timing on trades. According to the theoretical base, rising in volume and open interest reveal the continued movement up or down. In other words, when the volume and open interest decline, the theory perceived that the momentum and movement are decelerating, and the direction of prices will soon reverse.