If you are concerned about the Chinese economy, you shouldn’t. Chinese exports for the month of September came in at $186 billion, a 9.9% increase year over year.
We did have a little dip end 2008 where exports fell to about $65 billion, but since 2009, the Chinese kept growing their exports as you can see on Chart 1.
Chart 1: Chinese Exports |
As Zerohedge’s chart points out, exports and imports are mostly equal. If exports move up, imports will move up too. Mostly exports are higher than imports as China has a trade surplus.
The thing to consider is that if exports go up, imports will go up and as a result, commodities will go up in price (Chart 2). We had 3 months of consecutive drops in imports, but September has made an end to that. In September, China imported a record amount of iron ore, the highest since January 2011: 65 million tonnes. Also copper imports jumped to a 4 month high.
Chart 2: Chinese Exports – Imports |
On Chart 3 you can see that 65 million tonnes of iron ore imports isn’t that much compared to the previous months, but it’s a start. China has started a 1 trillion yuan stimulus and we will certainly see the effects of this in the coming months.
Chart 3: China Iron Ore Imports |
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