GDP Vs. Trade Balance

The trade balance numbers are given monthly, so they can be a good indication on how the GDP numbers will pan out as they are quarterly numbers.

We can predict the GDP numbers by looking at the trade balance numbers. Whenever the trade balance goes into surplus, the GDP growth actually accelerates. This is because people will import more to consume more. A big part of GDP is mostly based on consumption.

For more info on this, go here.

Analysis of Deficits to Outlay Spending Ratio

I already talked about how the U.S. budget deficit is skyrocketing in this article. Reason was that outlay spending has outpaced government tax revenues since 2008.

I decided to make another chart of this going to the early 1980’s. As James Turk stated, when governments start to borrow more than 40% to fund their outlay spending, then we have come to a hyperinflationary scenario.

To see what this chart means, go to: the full version of this article.

Chart 1: Deficits (+)/Surplus (-) versus Outlay Spending Ratio

Europe is doing well

Eurozone current account surplus was $US 6 billion in January 2012, its highest level since 2007.

I already talked about the euro being much stronger than the USD in this article. Looks like my predictions are coming true. The euro also surged 0.5% earlier. And yesterday it surged 1%. It’s now almost back at ratio 1.33.

And it will continue going up in my opinion.