Here’s how the gold repatriation from the FRBNY is going. A large drop and it will only accelerate as physical gold is so tight at this moment, everyone will want it back at home.
Month: November 2014
Gold Lease Rates Starting 2008 Ramp Up
This is not going to end well for gold shorts.
1 month lease rates are higher than 12 month lease rates.
Decoupling Japan Vs. gold/stocks
On 9 November I started to write about the Japan carry trade versus gold.
Exactly at that moment, gold and the Japanese yen carry trade decoupled. Also stocks decoupled from the Japanese yen carry trade. Maybe they know we know and need to find something else to manipulate the markets.
Or we could be starting the hyperinflationary phase where the yen plunges and stocks don’t go up anymore, while gold does go up.
U.S. Debt Hits $18 Trillion
And here we are, the U.S. debt has almost reached the 18 trillion number.
Say goodbye to $17 trillion.
And debt and gold always go together.
Goldbroker.com Interview with Marc Faber
A new video with Marc Faber to add to the archive.
– Marc holds gold, likes silver, platinum, palladium as currencies.
– Marc expects that the U.S. dollar won’t be strong due to further monetary easing from the Fed.
– Doesn’t expect Swiss gold initiative to move the market.
– Isn’t comfortable in bonds, cash and stocks.
Swiss gold referendum poll results in weird trading
A weird lag.
First the euro spikes with lower gold prices due to the new results of the Swiss referendum.
=> 38% yes, 47% no, 15% undecided.
Then the euro comes back down (blue chart). Then 20 minutes later, gold spikes back up (red chart).
Can you call this normal trading?
Look how silver is actually higher now.
APMEX junk silver sold out
I’m sorry, but you can’t get silver anymore… too late.
Junk silver all sold out. Now I can’t even make my silver premium charts anymore.
Managed Money Shorts Gold/Silver Update
I was forecasting a short squeeze last week when managed shorts were topping out. Looks like silver started to initiate one this week as shorts started to come down.
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Gold is still lagging, but I suspect a short squeeze in gold is imminent. $1250/ounce is our target next week. Silver is leading gold here.
Note how beautifully correlated the large commercials are with the managed money short positions.
GOFO rates hit record lows
Just to remind you that GOFO rates are sinking fast. I expect a V-bottom reversal in the price of gold. That’s a 14 year low in GOFO. Another catalyst is the Swiss gold initiative which will boost gold to $1350/ounce if it passes end this month (as Bank of America Merrill Lynch says).
1 month GOFO:
6 month GOFO rolling over:
A lot of stress building up in physical gold when you look at lease rates. Look how the different maturities now converge together. This typically is a sign of a bottom.
World Gold Council Publishes Q3 2014 Demand and Supply Gold
The WGC posted the Q3 report on gold supply and demand today.
The highlights were that gold demand fell 2% yoy to 929.3 metric tons. This was obvious because Chinese demand declined earlier, (but is now rising again). See how in July till September 2014, the demand was low, but creeping upwards. The Q4 gold demand numbers will be much better.
But the most interesting is that total supply fell 7%, more than the 2% decline in demand. Total supply was 1,047.5 tons. Mining output still went up 1% at 797 tons, but that’s obviously going to go down in Q4. The decline in supply was mostly attributed to the decline in recycled gold. That’s because the common investors don’t sell gold at these low prices.
So the demand and supply numbers are slowly creeping towards each other until we go into deficit soon. In silver we already have a deficit.
Correlation Economics (Backup) 