Gold Silver Update

On 19 February I told everyone to sell gold as all my indicators were negative. Looks like I was right. Although I have become a bit more bullish after that date because I saw huge inflows in GLD ETF.

Look at how much inflows there are in the GLD in the latest month. We even see a bit of an arbitrage opportunity here. While the GLD inflows continued in May, the paper gold price went down. We’ll monitor this closely in the next days to see if the GLD inflow continues.

On the managed money shorts (COT report), we see that the correction is finally starting. If the managed money short position correction completes to the upper channel, we could see gold go as low as $1150/ounce.

 

Silver could go as low as $15/ounce.

 

Premiums have come down, so I’m not at all bullish here. We could see a correction here because there is a lot of silver available. No supply shortages.

  

 

 

  

As for the COMEX. We see inflows in registered gold and a rise in open interest. Nothing special to report here.

 

And for silver, the registered silver stocks are still in a downtrend, pointing to a build up in leverage, which started in 2015.

 

Conclusion:

We’re in a mixed situation. On one hand we have ETF’s buying precious metals, which is bullish. But on the other hand we have weak premiums from both China and the Western world and the COT reports point to a short term bear case. So I wouldn’t be rushing into precious metals at this moment. Wait a month or two to see where we stand.

First Majestic Silver Bullion Store Hikes Silver Prices Again

In a week or so, when First Majestic Silver hiked its silver bullion prices from $17.5/ounce to $17.75/ounce. Today it hiked it again from $17.75/ounce to $18.5/ounce as silver prices continue to soar higher.

As I said, more hikes to come.

 

After One Year: First Majestic Silver Hikes Silver Bullion Prices

It happened, after several cuts of the price of silver bullion, First Majestic Silver has increased for the first time since a year its silver bullion price from $17.5/ounce to $17.75/ounce.
This was needed as premiums were almost negative. I expect more hikes in the next months.

 

Junk silver premiums are falling.

  

Gold premiums are flat.

 

Shanghai silver premiums are lower.

 

 All in all, this action looks bearish for precious metals.

Gold Premium Update

All my indicators are saying: sell gold at this moment.

APMEX silver premiums are falling.

Shanghai silver premiums are crushed.

Shanghai gold premiums are negative.

APMEX gold premiums are falling:

 Managed money is all long gold and commercials are all short. So no short squeeze is coming.

There will clearly be better opportunities to buy gold and silver in the future, sure isn’t today.

Gold/Silver Premium Update

The COT report this weeks shows that gold will go up in price as shorts are covering. But silver shorts seem to have already covered, so short term I think silver has done its course and I would be worried about a leg down in silver. Silver hasn’t done anything special in price, despite a record sale at the U.S. Mint, which is odd.

Gold is doing ok, more upside to come:

Silver shorts have covered half of their shorts, weakness in silver to come:

This is confirmed by the weakness in silver premiums at Shanghai:

Gold premium at Shanghai is stable:

APMEX silver premiums are falling:

Junk silver is also not doing too well, but I see that some silver bags are out of stock at APMEX, so I guess we will see a rise in premiums soon:

Gold premiums are rising:

Conclusion: buy gold, but hold off on silver for the time being.

First reactions to gold after Yellen rate hike

A day after the Yellen rate hike we watch what happens with the premium on gold and silver. I see a bullish rise in premiums.

Premiums on bullions from mines are getting higher, hitting 27%.

APMEX silver premiums are steady and rising at 26% for generic junk silver bags.

There is notable interest from China as premiums keep surging higher for silver, hitting 11% (without VAT tax adjustment).

China gold premiums are also rising above 0% level.

Very interesting is that premiums for gold coins at APMEX are rising to 4.3%, the highest since I monitored it.

Managed Money Short Gold Update

Charts are still bullish for precious metals as large commercials are long and managed money is short.

 

 

Silver premiums are rising steadily to 30% for silver at APMEX.

 

 Silver premiums in Shanghai are rising.

 

Surprisingly high premium for gold coins at APMEX.

Silver Premiums continue to rise to the moon

The news for today is that silver premiums keep rising to new highs.

Look at that:

 

Clearly, the physical silver market (red chart) is now leading the COMEX paper spot price of silver (blue chart). 

 

Which means gold and silver miners are selling at that physical price, I believe a surge in the mining area will occur soon. Also, APMEX buy price for silver is $17.62/ounce, which is above the spot price of silver. 

This means you can sell your silver to APMEX at a price higher than the spot price of silver, which also means you can’t ever buy physical silver at the spot price of $15/ounce.

Isn’t this an interesting event?

And that might explain why First Majestic Silver has these silver medallions on BACKORDER at a price of $17.50/ounce. I could just buy all the silver of First Majestic Silver and sell it with profit to APMEX at $17.62/ounce.

 There just isn’t any physical silver left…

Arbitrage between paper and physical price of silver

For years I have monitored the spot price of silver with the physical price of silver and this is the first time that I have seen that the spot price of silver falls, while the physical price of silver is rising. 

Have they finally hit the wall? Is lowering the paper price actually going to increase the physical price?

APMEX silver eagle premiums hit new high

I have never seen these premiums in silver since I monitored it. APMEX coins hit 40% premium. And 90% junk silver bags were out of stock the whole week, which I also have never seen before.

I say buy more.

Also note how registered silver (blue line) at the COMEX is going down, we have a trend change in stock levels of silver, indicating shortage.