Merk Webinar: Black Swans?

I attended the Merk Webinar today and here is a summary of what I picked up.

– Japan’s government bonds are being crowded out by central banks.
– VIX has been coming down, which signals overcomplacency.
– Terrorism has increased bets on Brexit.
– Elections can have effect: e.g. trade wars which will be negative for deficit countries like U.S.
– U.S. dollar will weaken on trade wars.
– Margin debt is peaking.
– Chinese yuan is leading indicator for S&P.
– Bearish Japanese yen.