Central Banks "Leasing" Gold

When short term gold lease rate turned negative in the second part of 2011 (Chart 1), we started to see price manipulation in the gold market. Each time the gold lease rate started to spike downwards, we saw a big decline in the gold (GLD) (PHYS) and silver (SLV) (PSLV) price afterwards. Low gold lease rates mean that lenders want to lend out their gold at all prices. High gold lease rates mean just the opposite, you will have to find more profitable investments to put that leased gold into use.

Why did gold prices go down and how does this connect to central banks leasing gold? What are Eric Sprott, Mike Maloney and Reginald H. Howe’s take on this?

Find out by reading my article:
Rising Gold Lease Rates Indicating Easing of Price Manipulation.

Eric Sprott

Mike Maloney

A look at the balance sheet of the big 4

Let’s take a look at the balance sheets of the four biggest economies of this world (Europe, USA, China, Japan) and discuss their effect on stocks and precious metals. Although the USA and Europe have the biggest GDP of the four economies of this world, surprisingly, China has the biggest balance sheet of them all, with a whopping $US 4.5 trillion balance sheet. Second comes Europe with a balance sheet of $US 4 trillion. Then comes the USA with a balance sheet of $US 2.9 trillion. And last but not least, Japan with a balance sheet of $US 2 trillion.

To read the analysis, go to: A look at the balance sheet of the big 4 economies

Central banks shifting to gold

There has been much talk about central banks becoming net buyers of gold since the start of the economic crisis in 2008. I want to elaborate on that.

The world gold council (WGC) yearly reports on the amount of central bank gold sales. As of 2010, central banks have shifted from net sellers to net buyers of gold (Figure 1). And this has only happened recently! As we look at history, during the inflationary years of 1980, central banks were buying gold. Then a period of gold selling occured from 1989 till 2009 where gold went into a bear market. Central banks only shifted to buying gold since 2010. Which means we are going straight back into a bull market of gold.

Figure 1

The WGC expected growth in gold buying from central banks to continue throughout 2012. The projected growth of central bank gold buying was projected to be 336 tonnes of gold per year in 2011 (Figure 2). Their predictions were right as central banks added 450 tonnes during 2011.

Figure 2

By far, the increase in interest in gold is the highest within the sector of central banks as opposed to investment, bars, coins and ETF’s (Figure 3).

Figure 3

The top among those countries that increased their gold holdings in 2011 are: Mexico, Russia, Thailand, Bolivia, Korea (Figure 4). More recently, we see activity from Mongolia and Kazachstan.

Figure 4

Conclusion: Central banks know there is something going wrong with our fiat currency system. Otherwise they wouldn’t shift to buying gold, which started coincidentally after 2008: the year of the global financial crisis where money supply exploded. I suggest that we investors follow the big guys into buying gold, you don’t want to be left behind.