The Effect of Government on the Economy of a Country

I believe government is an important institution to keep order in a society of a country. It should focus mainly on the country’s defense and should obey the constitution of the country. By no means it should involve with the economy of a country as the government is always less efficient as free market capitalism. Governments should be as small as possible, in order to let the private economy flourish. Today, governments are standing in the way of free market capitalism through taxation, regulations and counterproductive measures. What governments don’t know are the unintended consequences they cause. I’m sure that governments are the root cause of all the problems in Europe and soon in the United States.

In this article I want to give an overview of several countries and their government involvement. The best measure to rate government involvement would be the amount of spending as a percentage of the country’s GDP. We will discuss the effects of a big government on the country’s economy and give advice to investors on how to act on this knowledge. We will see that there is a direct correlation between government size and unemployment/debt/tax rate.

To read the article go to: The size of governments and the effect on their economies.

Spain’s government bonds shoot up above 6%

Spain’s government bonds shot up today to 6.1%. At this rate we’re rapidly approaching the “danger zone” of 7% and above, often mentioned by James Turk. You can easily see LTRO I and LTRO II in this chart 1. Maybe Spain will need LTRO III to make the yields drop again…

Chart 1: Spanish Bond Yields (10 YR)

Meanwhile, people keep fleeing into German bonds, which dropped to 1.5%.

Chart 2: German Bond Yields (10 YR)

Replacing US treasuries by EU treasuries

In March 2012, the U.S. government bond yields shot up, meaning that people are selling U.S. government bonds. So where did they place that money?

Investors have transferred that money to Eurozone treasuries because a looming default has been averted by the ECB. The ECB printed a trillion euros in a few months time to help Greece, Italy and Spain. This stabilized the Eurozone government debt securities so investors are now more keen to shift their money into Eurozone debt.

To see my analysis, go here: Traders converting U.S. bonds into Eurozone bonds

Greece: The "Debt"-line is near

There has been much talk about Greece defaulting on 20 March 2012. I can’t agree more on that statement. By 20 March, Greece needs to pay $US 18 billion in bond payments. In 2014 their $US 100 billion debt matures Here’s why I think they won’t be able to pay off their debt: Greece: The “Debt”-line is near

European banks: Government Debt Exposure

Today I came across a very nice (and funny) presentation on how much government debt exposure these European banks have on their balance sheet.

You can find the presentation here: http://demonocracy.info/infographics/eu/debt_piigs/debt_piigs.html

Bank government debt exposure (Demonocracy.info)

Based on this picture you can almost predict which bank is the safest/riskiest bank to place your money in. The banks with the highest exposure to government debt are the banks that are the most risky when we are faced with a government debt collapse. Almost all of them are Spanish and Italian banks. If you do place your money in a bank, choose wisely! Or do what the wise man would do, don’t choose, instead buy gold.

Government Bond Yield Extremes

Today I found an interesting article on Bloomberg about 1 Year German government bond yields going under zero (see Figure 1).

It is amazing that people want to lend money to the German government while paying extra money (1% of their investment) a year from now. Thereby losing money with their investment.

I can think of only one reason for this and that is: “your money is not safe in the bank”.

Why would someone not just put their savings in a bank which pays around 1,5 % yield a year. Instead they want to lose money by buying German government bonds. Exactly because your cash is not safe in your bank. At any time your bank will go bankrupt. I know Germany is a safe haven, but there are far better alternatives here like buying precious metals: gold and silver.

Figure 1:

The 1 year US government bond yield is really almost the same. Amazingly low yields with minimal return in an inflationary environment (see Figure 2).

Figure 2:

Completely the opposite is the 1 year Greece Government Bond Yield (see Figure 3), which is surging past a record 380 %, which basically means a default on their debt.

Figure 3:

It amazes me that people still buy these government bonds, knowing that the bond bull market is coming to its end.
US government bond yields have run a 30 year bull market (1980-2012). I think it’s time for the market to start moving the money from government bonds to precious metals.