First Majestic Silver has no reason to exist

First Majestic Silver just announced 3Q earnings. The following part in particular is interesting.

  • All-in sustaining cost (“AISC”) was $19.89 per payable silver ounce, up 9% from the prior quarter. 

Why you say?

Because of this:

So technically the company has no reason to exist anymore as they sell silver at AISC mining costs, unless they’re into charity.

Which one will collapse: USD or U.S. bond yields?

An arbitrage opportunity has come up on the forex and bond market. The USD has strengthened so much that something has to give. Either the USD (red chart) will collapse or U.S. bond yields (blue chart) will collapse.

I have the feeling the U.S. bond yields will collapse. That also means stocks will collapse as people will sell stocks to get into bonds..

Dividend Yield Vs. Bond Yield

It pays off to compare the dividend yield and the bond yield in the U.S.

A very long time ago, before 1970, dividend yields on stocks were on average priced at 120% of the triple AAA bond yields. So if a bond gets you 10% return, the dividend yield would get you 12%. That’s because stocks can default and are riskier than bonds which are less likely to default.

But since 1970, this has changed.with the rise of mutual funds. The ratio of dividend yields versus bond yields dropped to around 20% (see chart below). Today we are at 100% so we are back in line with history (with stocks just a little bit overpriced). Just keep in mind that we have the 120% rule and try to follow this rule (to keep your sanity in these volatile markets).

U.S. bond yields can be found here:
//research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/graph-landing.php?g=QA9 Dow Jones dividend yields can be found here:
http://www.investmenttools.com/equities/fundamentals/dow_jones_dividend_yield.htm

Monitoring the Foreign Gold Deposits Held at Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY)

With repatriation of gold in the picture, especially when the Swiss gold referendum vote comes in a few weeks to repatriate their Swiss gold (30 November), we need to keep an eye on the gold deposits at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Each month they issue this report of gold deposits at the FRBNY.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/releases/intlsumm/forassets20141031.htm

The value of the gold deposit is calculated at value $42.22/troy ounce.

Take an example September 2014: 8305 million USD of earmarked gold.

So you first divide 8305 million USD by $42.22/troy ounce and then you convert it to tonnes. You get 6118 tonnes.

Now we chart it out over two years and we see that people are not deposition gold in the U.S. Instead they are pulling out their gold from the U.S. FRBNY at a very fast pace. I expect this to accelerate till there is no gold left in the U.S. or something breaks in the rehypothecation scheme.

This is what it looked like in the past:

Insatiable demand for gold and silver from both East and West

In the last few weeks we have seen a huge drop in gold and silver (see charts below from Kitco).

As a result of these price drops we have seen huge demand coming in from both East and West.

Let’s start with China. I like to reference the charts from Koos Jansen at Bullionstar.com.

As you can see on the chart above, China has been increasing its purchases of gold in the recent weeks when the price of gold dropped to $1150/ounce as opposed to what the mainstream media is saying about China’s demand going down. Gold premiums in Shanghai are going up on the newly created SGEI exchange, while gold premiums at the SGE exchange stayed flat at around 0%. On the SGEI, the premiums are approaching 1.5% now.

I have to note that the newly created SGEI is of high importance to many markets. For example, we have seen a big shift to the downside for the gold imports from Hong Kong to China. While recent numbers point out that China demand is 60 tonnes of gold per week (or 240 tonnes a month), Hong Kong gold imports to China have not been that robust in the previous months (see chart below from Correlation Economics). Net imports from Hong Kong to China have been hovering around levels of 30 tonnes/month. Only in the recent September 2014 numbers we saw a rebound. This tells me that Hong Kong is declining in importance as a gold hub to China. So investors should know that Hong Kong gold imports to China don’t accurately reflect China gold demand anymore.

APMEX Silver Premiums Soar

What could happen in 3 weeks of holiday? Apmex premiums can spike from 20% to 30%. Junk silver spike from 5% to 20%. I went to Apmex site and they only have 2 bags of junk silver left. That’s because the U.S. Mint sold out of silver.

But this is only temporary, as Shanghai silver premiums are showing a decline from 14% to 7%.

Shanghai gold premiums even went negative.

Gold premiums on Apmex are pretty normal and even declined a bit.

GLD gold holdings Vs. Top gold ETF holdings

A few weeks ago I searched up some data on the GLD tonnes of gold in their trust Vs. Total gold ETF holdings and we saw an obvious correlation. I’ll update this page once in a while to see where we are headed to.

Whenever GLD gold holdings go up, the holdings of exchange traded funds backed by physical gold go up.

GLD used to take up 70% of the total gold ETF holdings in 2008, but today it only adds up to about 40% share of the total gold ETF holdings.