Trend change in COMEX registered silver stock

Just a small update on COMEX, we are still at record high leverage in paper gold for the year (chart below). Which means a bottom in precious metals.

Gold registered stock (blue) at lows. So we know there isn’t a lot of gold left in COMEX and they are doing transactions in kilobars which is odd, because that is an Asian thing as China wants kilobars. But additionally we see an interesting trend change in silver.

Over the same timeline, we see lower registered silver stocks (blue chart below).

What might this mean? Are we so low on gold at COMEX, that we are taking on silver stock now? Let’s monitor this some more and see what happens.

Managed Money Short Gold Update

Managed money shorters have been short squeezed in the past weeks, against a rising gold price as I predicted, the outlook for precious metals is going to be a little bit muted now, especially for silver.

Although I don’t expect any short squeezes going into next week I need to point out something interesting.

GLD has seen small outflows, which means hedge funds are again selling their physical gold into the market. Also the total gold ETF’s backed by physical gold saw outflows of about 20 tonnes a month. This has put pressure on the gold price.

But I don’t believe we will see further significant outflows as the COMEX gives us a clue on this.

Registered gold at the COMEX is hitting record lows again (blue chart below is plunging).

And paper gold leverage (see below) is clearly hitting a one year high, indicating a definitive bottom in the gold price. January 2014 (the spike in the chart below) is happening all over again, so I expect gold to go back to $1300/ounce again in short notice.

And precious metals premiums were up across the board, but not by a lot.

COMEX reveals that GLD will accumulate gold

It still amazes me how good the COMEX and GLD correlate to each other. We see that since 2014, the COMEX (first chart, blue line) and GLD trust (second chart, red line) are now taking in physical gold again. Especially COMEX.

COMEX gold

GLD tonnes in trust

This tells me that funds are finally interested in gold again and that a bottom is in.

Correlation between GLD ETF and COMEX

This is why I think the gold price is bottoming out, we have additional evidence at the COMEX.

When gold started its decline in April 2013, the COMEX registered stock level kept dropping due to outflows. This event was building up stress in the gold market as the gold price dropped.

The same has happened with the GLD ETF. So this is very interesting, it means that the GLD ETF and the COMEX gold stocks are correlated, which I didn’t even notice up until now.

Since January 2014 both the COMEX and the GLD ETF bottomed out and started taking in physical gold stock. This made the price of gold go up more than 10% to date. You can see on the first chart that the registered gold stock at the COMEX is even increasing as we speak. This is a bullish indicator as this means that the GLD ETF gold stock level will increase too (if my correlation theory is correct). And everyone knows that when GLD takes in physical gold, that this is real physical demand pushing prices upwards.

Leverage has come down significantly due to the increase in registered gold at the COMEX. A further deleveraging should be bullish for gold.

By the way, gold should be much higher tomorrow as we start the new quarter. They tried to push the gold price down and stocks higher at the end of this quarter to make their books look good.

J.P. Morgan COMEX Gold Unwinding Continues

Remember when I posted breaking news here about the COMEX unwinding?

It has just accelerated and it’s again J.P. Morgan who is unwinding. At this rate, I give it until mid March 2014 until it implodes.

Paper gold pyramid scheme unwinds right now

Pretty breaking news in the COMEX is that we are seeing a start in the unwinding process of leverage in paper gold.

Zerohedge reports that J.P. Morgan got its largest drop in eligible gold in one day.

This is how it looks like. Of course with so few real physical gold at the COMEX, the whole paper pyramid scheme will collapse in a jiffy.

And the leverage which will collapse too (still a long way to go down), is shown below. When everything unwinds, the paper shorts will have to come up with the real gold as China buys an ever increasing amount at the SGE. This week the SGE had a record delivery of 59 tonnes, the second highest after the 79 tonnes we got last week.

Add to that the most probable import tax restriction easing of the Indian government and we have the perfect storm for gold. I even sold my copper stocks to buy extra gold mining shares.

And I didn’t even mention the end of manipulation by Deutsche Bank, the increasing investments from China in the gold mining sector and the decreasing supply from high grade mines going into 2015. Nor did I mention the crashing stock market which will make gold soar when investors switch their equities for gold.

Media Ignoring Record Lows in COMEX Registered Gold

I always get a rush when we get a new low in registered gold at the COMEX and today it’s bull’s eye again.

COMEX Gold

We hit a new record low of 370 thousand ounces at the COMEX gold.

Indeed, leverage is going up exponentially. We are now at ratio eligible to registered gold of 20.

And what I find very amazing is that the media is ignoring this in our face.

Take for example this article.

I quote what they say about silver:

Stockpiles of the metal on the Comex on Jan. 8 reached 176.88 million ounces on Jan. 8, the highest since July 1997. In 2013, supplies rose for the third straight year, the longest run in a decade.

But nowhere they mention the plunging stock at the gold warehouses. Keep your blindfolds on…

P.S.: China is now removing bank restrictions to import gold into China. This exponential curve will only accelerate.

COMEX Gold New Record Low

By now it is already baked in what these charts mean, just wanted to update you that we hit a new low in registered gold at COMEX. It is almost at worrying levels now.

Leverage continues to go up exponentially at a ratio of 17.5, the highest ever recorded on this chart.

I would expect a blowup soon. I have no idea how it will blow up, but blow up it will.

Click here to learn about the COMEX default.

COMEX Gold and Silver Reporting Interrupted Due To Weather Conditions

Look what I found on the COMEX gold stock today. These weather conditions must be really bad when the internet and phone doesn’t work anymore.

ONE OR MORE DEPOSITORIES WERE NOT ABLE TO REPORT CHANGES TODAY DUE TO WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE EAST COAST.

Meanwhile the drop in registered gold keeps intensifying.

Registered Gold Hits New Low at COMEX

You know what is very interesting? The registered gold at the COMEX hit a fresh new low. In just 1 day, the COMEX lost 20% of its total physical gold holdings.

We are now at a point that the COMEX could default instantly!

Eligible to registered gold leverage is now 15, a jump from 11 to 15, just in one day. You tell me if this is going to be sustainable.

If we look at open interest, we have 385432 or 38543200 ounces of gold against 490126 ounces of registered gold at the COMEX. That’s a leverage of 38543200/490126 = 79. Up from 67 a month ago.

On the premium side we still see record silver premiums, both at APMEX and Shanghai:

And now even in gold. Here we go Arbitrage Opportunity, you can bet the GLD gets raided now until all the gold at the GLD ETF is gone.

Indeed, the GLD ETF is being raided again.

And by the way, the GLD outflows mean nothing, when the Chinese buy an ever increasing amount of gold at the same time.